07.11.2009.ATP Valencia.A.Murray-F.Verdasco

[scrumm]

pick Verdasco to win at least one set odds 1.63 stake 5/10 bwin
well we all know that Murray doesn't looks as good as last year.He also looks even worst lately,and i don't think his play will improve to much until tomorow.First he seems to have really big problems in wining his own serve with a lot of errors,breaking, thats another story.He played here only with clay courters and he won all,having problems with a player that managed to win something on hard too.(because Mayer plays decent on hard even if favorite surface is also clay).
Tomorow against Verdasco Murray will have to pass the real test,and in my opinion he has very big chances to loose but for the safety of my money i decided to play Fernando to win one set.
Performing on home court it will be an advantage for Verdasco because sometimes he really needs to be pushed from behind and against an oponent like Murray he will have all the suport he wants.He also is trying to get on the wright track and a good game will give him a lot of confidence.
GL

[sovetov]

Hi, scrumm,
I'm just thinking...
Murray leads the previous matches 6-2 and there is a reason for that. Indoors he leads 3:3 without droping a set. Verdasco is aggressive player but that means a lot of errors which he make. In other hand, he do not play very well against strong defensive players and Murray is a great def. player. The Brith have the best returners on tour. He is more clever and have more skills, but Murray second set is terible. But in generaly Murray is the most likely winer here. So, I cant find value in such odds. IMO if we agree that Murray will win the match, but Verdasco will take atleast a set, or will trouble Murray enough to make him sweating for the victory (7:6; 7:5) over 22.5 games odds 2.00 look good. What do you think?